Despite what some would have us believe, the so-called Thucydides Trap is not a historical inevitability. Since it is known of, it can be avoided. That is essentially the consensus reaffirmed on various occasions by the leaders of the United States and China.
US president-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office for a second time at his inauguration on Jan 20. Which way the world's most important bilateral relationship evolves in the years ahead not only concerns the interests of people in both countries, but also has a bearing on the future of the whole humanity.
Thus it is all the more important for policymakers of the two countries to strive to manage the differences between the two sides, enhance mutual trust and expand cooperation, so as to find the right way for the world's top two economies to get along well with each other. That can only be done through dialogue. This is basically the message that Beijing has sent to Washington in the hope of keeping the mutually beneficial relationship on the track of stable, sound and sustainable development.
The upbeat tone of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's speech on Tuesday at a symposium summing up China's foreign relations in 2024 points to the dynamic and vast possibilities that await China-US relations, as long as the two sides join hands. If they do, "great things can be accomplished", as Wang said.
The past serves as a guide to the future. Over the past four years, more than 20 communication and exchange mechanisms have been established or restarted between the two sides, including the economic and financial working groups which held meetings over the past week. This communication has led to major progress being made in such fields as counternarcotics, law enforcement, climate change, artificial intelligence and youth exchanges. Just days ago, the two countries renewed their decades-old science and technology agreement, enabling their scientists to continue cooperation in climate research, earthquake monitoring and public health. All this points to the vast common interests the two countries share.
Yet despite this, the smooth and healthy development of Sino-US relations still faces many obstacles and challenges, most obviously from the China hawks in Washington that are seeking to suppress China's development. Propelled by their jaundiced view of China, the US has launched attacks on China's trade and high-tech, and promoted "decoupling", as well as engaging in "brutal interference" in the country's internal affairs, such as the Taiwan question.
In a latest sign that the US has no intention of easing restrictions on China's high-tech development, the outgoing Joe Biden administration is reportedly preparing a trade investigation into China's production of older-model semiconductors, which could ultimately result in tariffs, import bans or other actions targeting certain Chinese-made semiconductors and the products that contain them. Reports of the proposed move come shortly after the Biden administration announced curbs on the sale of semiconductor-making equipment and restrictions on numerous Chinese companies, prohibiting them from accessing US technology.
Such coercive actions are in essence aimed at depriving China of the right to development. If not abated they will inevitably lead to a locking of horns as China has no intention of relaxing its pace of modernization on the path it has mapped out.
History shows that China and the US stand to gain from cooperation, and lose from confrontation. It was not a complete exaggeration for Trump to say recently that "China and the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world". But for that to happen, the US must refrain from seeking a new Cold War, or a conflict with China. China is doing its best to keep relations on an even keel, hopefully the US will too.
