Following the United States operation that ousted President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela is entering a period of profound political and economic uncertainty, with regime realignment rather than outright regime change emerging as the most likely outcome, according to analysts at BMI, a subsidiary of rating agency Fitch Solutions.
Julia Sinitsky, a Latin American analyst at the company, said the firm's base case, which carries a 60 percent probability, predicts "regime continuity with behavior realignment", in which key figures from the existing government in Venezuela would retain power while adjusting policies to meet US demands.
Sinitsky said the US priorities are clear: curbing the influence of China, Iran and Russia in the Western Hemisphere, dismantling Venezuela's alleged role in drug trafficking networks, and restoring US access to the country's vast oil reserves.
Conor Beakey, head of Latin America research at BMI, described the US operation as the most dramatic evidence of a broader shift in Washington's policy toward the region.
"The objective here is to re-establish the US as a regional hegemon to advance a set of America's first domestic goals, such as reducing migration and drug trafficking, facilitating opportunistic investment for US corporations, and securing access to natural resources and critical minerals," he said.
Beakey noted that while Cuba and Nicaragua remain potential pressure points, similar interventions there are less likely in the near term.
