China prohibited the export of all dual-use items to Japan for military purposes, and to any end-users or end-uses that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities as of Tuesday.
The measures, announced by the Ministry of Commerce, are firmly grounded in domestic law and in accordance with China's nonproliferation obligations and legitimate security concerns. They are a necessary response to the erroneous and dangerous remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on the Taiwan question in the Diet on Nov 7.
The controls apply extraterritorially: any organization or individual in any country or region that transfers or supplies relevant China-origin dual-use items to Japan in violation of the rules will be held legally accountable, the ministry said.
As such, they are intended as a warning that there is no room for ambiguity, provocation or historical amnesia on issues relating to China's core interests, especially the Taiwan question.
Tokyo repeated its old trick of calling white black by attempting to play the victim after China announced the export controls. But although the Japanese Foreign Ministry protested against China's move, Tokyo is well aware it is the party to blame and the party that created the situation that prompted the move.
The Chinese move should be viewed in the context of the Takaichi government's broader security agenda, including its announcement of plans to raise Japan's defense spending to 2 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025, ahead of the previously scheduled 2027. That runs counter to Japan's constitutional stipulations and postwar institutional arrangements, which were established precisely to prevent the revival of militarism after Japan's defeat in World War II.
To justify this dramatic military expansion, as well as its push to revise Japan's pacifist Constitution and abandon the "Three Nonnuclear Principles", the Takaichi government has repeatedly hyped up the so-called "China threat". A narrative that is nothing more than a rehash of the old pretexts once exploited by militarist Japan to wage its war of aggression.
History offers vivid lessons that the international community should heed. Japan's total appropriation of China's natural resources, including iron ore and other ores, coal, other mineral resources, wood and grain nationwide before its unconditional surrender in 1945 was a gigantic amount. According to incomplete statistics, Japan plundered approximately 1 billion tons of coal, 180 million tons of iron ore, 1.5 million tons of copper ore, 100,000 tons of aluminum, and 50,000 tons of magnesium from China, as well as large quantities of nonmetallic minerals and precious metals such as lead, zinc, gold and silver throughout the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45).
During the war, China suffered not only about 35 million casualties, but also estimated direct economic losses of over $100 billion and indirect losses exceeding $500 billion, calculated in terms of 1937 levels. Japan has not compensated for that part of China's loss, which it falsely classified as "trade".
Japan even sent a large number of prospecting teams under the guise of travelers, teachers, photographers and scientists to China to locate the "trade" resources it would require for its aggression long before it waged war.
From an economic and industrial perspective, Japan's anxiety at China's newly announced export controls is clear. Estimates show that the dual-use items Japan imports from China totaled about ¥10.7 trillion ($68.4 billion) in 2024, accounting for roughly 42 percent of Japan's total imports from China. These items include semiconductors, special metals, rare earths and precision machine tools that are essential for high-end manufacturing and defense-related projects, which will be extremely difficult to replace in the short term.
China's export controls are intended to restrict trade activities that could endanger China's national security and to reduce the security threats from Japan at source. The current measures are in essence a serious prompting to Japan that it should correct its current course.
China's resolve should not be underestimated. Reports that China is considering tightening licensing reviews for medium and heavy rare earth elements underscore that Beijing means what it says. Japan's revival of militarism poses a threat to regional and world peace. China's resistance to its attempts in that regard is in line with the overall interests of peace and stability.
An assessment by the Nomura Research Institute shows that Japan relies almost entirely on China for heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, which are indispensable for neodymium magnets used in electric vehicle motors and advanced military equipment. The institute estimates that if rare earth export restrictions were to last three months, Japan could suffer losses of about ¥660 billion, reducing its annual GDP by 0.11 percent; if they were to last for a year, losses could reach ¥2.6 trillion, with GDP declining by 0.43 percent.
If the Takaichi government continues to compound its mistakes, it will only invite more pronounced consequences that it should be held accountable for.
