As France's right-wing conservative party, The Republicans, or LR, confirms two official candidates in its newly launched leadership race, experts say the outcome could reshape the party's direction.
Bruno Retailleau, French minister of the interior, is viewed as a rising figure with growing national appeal, while Laurent Wauquiez, the current president of the French Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes region and a member of French National Assembly, is seen as a more traditional voice trying to regain ground after years away from the spotlight.
"This is not just a leadership race, it's a referendum on what the French right wants to be," Sophie Langlois, a political analyst on France 5 TV, said on Sunday, reflecting growing interest in the direction of the party.
On Saturday, the party's internal authority validated both candidacies, setting up a high-stakes battle for control of a party that could play a key role in the 2027 presidential election.
The latest Ipsos survey, published on March 19, shows Retailleau is gaining momentum. He now ranks fourth in public support of political leaders, with 28 percent of respondents saying they would be satisfied if he became president – up from just 15 percent in October 2024.
Retailleau seems to have the upper hand in the first phase of the race. According to the party's figures, he gathered 2,235 endorsements from LR members and 92 from parliamentarians. Wauquiez, in contrast, secured 997 member endorsements and 44 from MPs.
Wauquiez's team, however, insists the picture is incomplete. On March 18, they claimed to have collected more than 7,000 endorsements but were asked to submit only a reduced list.
"We submitted, as requested, a trimmed file with only 997 endorsements," Wauquiez told the French daily newspaper Le Figaro on Saturday. "But the electoral authority only considered that file."
He also suspended his participation in all meetings organized by the party's high authority, accusing it of bias.
Retailleau's camp responded by calling for full transparency and publication of all submitted endorsements.
Different styles, one goal
Though both candidates are conservative, their approaches differ. Retailleau, known for his sharp focus on law, order, and national identity, has positioned himself as a firm but modern conservative.
"I am perhaps the most independent interior minister of the Fifth Republic," Retailleau said on France 2 TV on March 20.
The Ipsos poll published on March 19 highlights this shift. Retailleau's satisfaction rating rose from 15 percent in October to 28 percent in March, while his disapproval rate dropped to 35 percent, well below that of Marine Le Pen, leading figure of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, who is at 49 percent, and Jordan Bardella, party chairman of RN, who sits at 48 percent.
According to Claire Morel, a political analyst on BFM TV, Retailleau "has struck a balance that resonates with both traditional conservatives and the center-right. That's a rare advantage today".
French mainstream outlets have also taken notice. French daily newspaper Le Monde describes Retailleau as "a conservative figure with growing appeal beyond the party base".
Meanwhile, France Inter Radio commented that "his handling of interior affairs has made him a serious contender not just within LR, but in the broader political landscape".
His tough positions, such as in pushing for enforcement of deportation orders and skipping traditional Ramadan events, have not alienated voters as some expected.
Wauquiez's uphill battle
Wauquiez is no stranger to the LR base. He previously led the party and remains a symbol of its conservative core. However, he has struggled to regain the momentum he once had.
In the Ipsos barometer, Wauquiez did not rank among the top five political figures, and his public appeal appears to have stalled.
"This election will not be decided by a few headlines or polls," Wauquiez said on CNews on Sunday.
But experts see challenges ahead for him.
"Wauquiez's message lacks the clarity it had years ago. He seems caught between defending the past and shaping the future," political scientist Alain Lefebvre said on Monday on private TV station LCI.
Mainstream news outlets have been more cautious in their coverage of Wauquiez.
Left-wing daily newspaper Liberation recently called him "a familiar face without a fresh message", while Franceinfo said he "risks being overshadowed by the rising influence of figures like Retailleau".
Still, Wauquiez's supporters argue that he remains the more consistent and traditional figure within the party – a contrast to Retailleau's government role in a centrist coalition.
The coming weeks will test both candidates' ability to mobilize support.
Retailleau benefits from both visibility and recent popularity gains, while Wauquiez must rebuild trust within the party, according to experts.
